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1.
WORLD Key Features
The features of the World Oil
Refining Logistics and Demand model ("WORLD")
distinguish it in its ability to address complex future
and present-day issues.
Model
n
Linear programming
modeling
system.
n
Simulates the activities and economics of the
world regional petroleum industry against short,
medium or long term horizons.
n
Integrates and captures the interactions between:
– crude supply
– non-crudes supply
– refining operations
– refining
investment
– transportation of
crudes, products and intermediates
– product
blending/quality
- product demand
- market economics and pricing.
Regional Formulation
n
Discrete representation of the world's major
regions.
n
Data-driven redefinition of model regions.
n
Facility to sub-divide regions by refinery
category, e.g. small, simple versus large,
complex, even represent individual refineries
n
Facility to independently model single regions,
prototypical or individual refineries.
Crude Oils
n Representation of over 120
world crude oils.
Refining Technology
n
Detailed, tested, state-of-the-art representation
of fifty-plus refinery processes.
n
Advanced representation of processes for
reformulated, ultra-low sulfur/aromatics and
military fuels.
Gas/NGLs, GTLs, Oxygenates and
Petrochemicals
n
Integrated representation of:
n
Gas/NGLs inputs to petroleum sector.
n
Merchant oxygenates production (separate from
in-refinery production.)
n
GTL gas-to-liquids merchant processes.
n
Facility to integrate petrochemical operations
and their inter-actions with refining.
Product Formulation and Demand
n
Detailed breakout of major, minor and military
petroleum products and demands.
n 30+
discrete products can be simulated.
n
Detailed representation of reformulated as well as
conventional fuels including RFG and
ultra-low-sulfur diesel
n
Optional detailed representation of military
fuels.
n
Rich array of available product specifications for
conventional, reformulated, and
military/experimental fuels with user control over
activation.
n
Available effective, linearized versions of EPA
Complex Model for gasoline emissions control.
n
Facility to represent tranches of demand, hence
supply and demand "curves" for demands
and, in sub-global models, imports and exports.
Transportation
n
Comprehensive inter-regional transportation of
crudes, products and intermediates.
n
Multiple tanker types and costs.
n
Import tariffs.
n
Capacitated pipeline movements.
n
Minor transportation modes.
n
Multi-mode movements.
Industry Structure and Investment
n
Advanced refinery process capacity investment
feature.
n
Regional differentiation of refining costs.
n
Effect of environmental regulations on capital and
operating costs.
n
Impact of economies of scale.
Data and Case Management
n
Supporting detailed databases:
– crude and non-crude
supply
– refinery capacity
and construction
– transportation
– product quality
– product demand
facilitate adaptation to new
studies and model formulations.
n
Databases are designed to work from major data
sources, e.g. EIA and OECD/IEA.
n
Ability to set sub-regional demand growth rates by
product type to user-selected future horizons.
System Performance and Flexibility
n
Advanced matrix generation and report writing code
enables virtually all model changes to be
data-driven.
n
Complete system runs routinely on Pentium PCs
(using barrier method optimizers.)
Documentation and Training
n
Comprehensive model user
documentation
n
Training and seminars.
User Interfaces
n
All refinery technology data are held in a
single Excel workbook database with all process
vectors weight and sulfur balanced
n
All case input data are held in a set of four
inter-linked Excel workbooks, making for easier
case management and reduced input errors: master,
supply/demand/quality, capacity &
construction, transport
Support and Analysis
n The
authors (highly experienced industry consultants)
support WORLD and are available to
assist or undertake analyses.
Commercial Availability
n
WORLD
is available for licensing –
recognizing internal use by a client does require a
significant commitment of expertise and resource
n
>EnSys supports and works closely with clients
who have licensed WORLD
Alternatively, EnSys is open to a range of short or
long term consulting arrangements
2.
WORLD Model
Evolution and Application
Evolution
Assessment of issues surrounding the
future of U.S. and global refining can only be taken so
far by static or simplified analyses. The world petroleum
industry is technically complex, has the economic
attributes of a co-product industry, its different aspects
and regions are highly inter-related. It contains
considerable ability to adjust to changed circumstances.
Finally, it is faced today by major challenges presented
by environmental, product quality, conservation,
substitution, supply/demand and technology/cost
developments.
The WORLD model was
designed to bring all of the key elements of the world
petroleum industry together into one simulation tool, with
the
specific goal that it realistically address "what
if?" issues that are departures from present day
"Business As Usual."
WORLD was developed by a team
of international petroleum consultants with many years'
experience in oil industry management, planning, systems,
and in analysis of issues, developments and projects. Key
to WORLD's evolution have been associations and
assignments with: Queen Mary College London, OPEC, NASA,
Oak Ridge/U.S. Navy, U.S. Energy Information
Administration, U.S. EPA, U.S. Department of Energy
Offices of Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Energy
Emergencies, Policy and with private oil companies. In
1992, WORLD was adopted by the U.S. Energy
Information Administration as its primary global petroleum
analytical tool and in 2000 by the OPEC Secretariat.
Current and Past Applications
Developed and proven over the last
twelve years, WORLD offers broad analytical
scope in its global, regional and single refinery forms.
n EIA
employ WORLD as a key component of each
Annual and International Energy Outlook cycle,
projecting alternative BAU scenarios out to 2020.
EIA have also applied WORLD
successfully to policy analyses including Alaskan crude
exportation, gasoline Btu tax and anti-dumping disputes
n
The WORLD refinery technology
database is also the database employed by EIA in
the Petroleum Market Module of the National
Energy Modeling System. Recent significant
applications include the Spring 2001 EIA study
on ultra-low sulfur diesel
n
EnSys' applications of WORLD have
included:
- assessment of the detailed US refining
impacts (investments, product switching,
market shares, exports, imports, supply and
market pricing) of ultra-low sulfur gasoline
and diesel (including prospectively off-road
diesel) set in a global context of movements
in Europe and elsewhere to ultra-low standards
and using latest projections on available
refinery process technologies and economics.
Study horizons include: 2006, 2010 and
potentially 2015 and 2020
- analysis of the world-wide crude oil market
and refining impacts of growing Caspian crude
production with emphasis also on the effects
of alternative Caspian crude export routes
- sensitivity of year 2010 global GTL and
refining investments to reductions in GTL
capital costs from their current level of
approximately $24,000/bbl/day
- impacts on US Gulf Coast (PADDIII) refining
of ultra low sulfur gasoline and then diesel
regulations. Emphasis on desulfurization
investments and ULS diesel production costs at
different sulfur specifications (50 – 8 ppm)
and different levels of phase-in (0%, 25%,
50%, 75%, 100%). Phase-in results formed the
basis of an Argonne/DOE report on phase-in
economic benefits
- global "business as usual" outlook
for 2010 taking account of changes in crude
supply and product demand and three different
scenarios of tightening in product quality.
Emphasis on related requirements for new and
revamp process investments for upgrading and
desulfurization
- impact on 2010 markets and regional refining
investments and margins of higher natural gas
production, hence lower residual and
heating oil demands, and
of higher natural gas with substantial GTL
liquids supply
- effect on US, OECD and
global refining activity, investment and
trade of applying carbon taxes to refinery
fuels and petroleum products in OECD regions
- impacts of US and
overseas fuels reformulation and refinery
environmental regulation on year 2000
regional refining investments, utilizations,
import/export trade patterns and US energy
security
- cost impacts of low
sulfur gasoline and of potential US diesel
reformulation to close to Swedish standards,
including effects of newly evolving refinery
technologies
- price impacts on tight
world markets of early SPR drawdown at the
time of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait
- effects on markets of
large ramp-up in jet fuel demand at the
onset of Operation Desert Storm against
various "what if" scenarios
including refinery outages and disruption of
key tanker arteries
- calibration to first quarter 2000 world
market/supply conditions leading in to
simulation of the impacts of hypothetical
major supply disruptions and SPR drawdowns.
Emphasis on the market pricing and related
economic impacts of sweet versus sour SPR
crude draw mix
n
Private sector clients have applied WORLD to
assessments of:
- longer term strategic investment
opportunities
- shorter to medium term refining tightness
and margins, based on the balance of known
capacity additions with demand growth and
crude slate
- support of shorter to medium term trading
decisions
- assessment of European 2005 gasoline and
diesel fuel regulations.
Potential Applications
Interest in WORLD among
the private sector is growing. EnSys is
experiencing a shift in WORLD use toward a
mix of corporate/market and policy issues. Areas
of active interest include:
n
impacts on US and world regional refining and
trade of the trend to ever lower sulfur fuels
n
new developments in Caribbean and Atlantic
basin crude production, including Venezuela,
Colombia, Newfoundland, West Africa and US
Gulf Coast deep offshore, and their
implications for future crude trading patterns
and refinery economics, especially in the US
Gulf Coast, US Northeast and Europe
n
impacts of new refining technologies and of
natural gas to liquids (GTL) processes on
future refining configurations, economics and
markets
n
medium term outlook to 2005/2010 for global
product and refining supply demand, especially
resuming high growth rates in Asia-Pacific and
the growing dominance of distillates (jet,
kero, diesel, heating oil) outside the US;
implications for product prices and refining
margins
n
implications of growing inter and intra
regional crude and product trade for tanker
supply / demand and freight rates, recognizing
tanker scrapping and replacement costs
Analytical Flexibility
WORLD is a modeling
system
– not a single model. Using it, different
model formulations can be developed, e.g. to
give more detailed representation of a given
world region (for instance, Northern Europe or
Asia-Pacific) or of given refinery classes (for
example, U.S. refineries that are high-cost
producers of diesel fuels).
These options and other
built-in features lead to a wide range of
analytical flexibility e.g. for:
n
Model variants that focus in detail on one
region or nation but maintain a full
global accounting
n Analysis of
outlooks for or impacts on different types of
refineries
n
Rigorous simulation of refinery
emissions and loss, control
technologies and costs.
n
Impacts of new refining process
technologies.
n
Cogeneration options
n
Simulation of global industry GHG (CO2)
emissions from production, transport, processing
and consumption under different scenarios.
3.
Regional Formulation Capabilities
The
WORLD system was explicitly designed to
permit flexibility in regional formulation and
disaggregation. The regional composition of WORLD
is data driven, that is, regional make-up can be modified
solely by altering data tables without alteration of code.
In the WORLD model, crude
supply/ product demand and refining regions are decoupled,
i.e. they may be defined separately from each other. In the
usual global formulation however, these regions are set up
as coincident.
The current WORLD regions
are aggregates of some 18 sub-regions. Base WORLD
data are held at three levels: country/sub-country,
sub-region, region. Regional reformulation which
differently aggregates or dis-aggregates the existing
sub-regions is straightforward, e.g. to break out Japan as
a separate region. Reformulation at the country level, e.g.
to show Saudi-Arabia as a discrete region, can also be
achieved purely by data manipulation and extension such as
to incorporate additional transportation movements.
Any given refining region may be
disaggregated by refinery sub-group, e.g. to distinguish
large, complex from small, simple refineries, identify
logistics sub-groups, or even single refineries.
APPENDIX A details the current WORLD
make-up of regions and countries.
4.
Model Input Requirements and Output Results
WORLD
INPUTS (CASE ASSUMPTIONS)
The WORLD model is a linear
programming model which simulates the operation of the world
regional petroleum industry based on user-specified
assumptions regarding the time horizon and scenario of
interest. For a complete WORLD case, the
following are the main input assumptions to be specified by
the user:
Feedstocks
n Crude
supply by nation by crude type (including SPR crudes in
SPR draw cases.)
n FOB price
of the balancing marker crude whose input is allowed to
float (generally Saudi Light.)
n Fixed
availabilities of non-crude inputs to the refining supply
system, notably NGLs, grain ethanol, synthetic petroleum
fuels, returns from the petrochemicals sector such as
steam cracker gasoline.
n Base
available regional capacities for production of
"merchant" MTBE and other ethers; also GTL
liquids.
n Variable
availabilities with regional prices for methanol, natural
gas, purchased electricity.
n
For regions where remote ("stranded") gas is
considered a feedstock for GTLs, remote gas prices.
n Amounts
of crude-based streams, notably resid, allowed to
refinery fuel.
Products
n Demands
for generally around 28 petroleum products by region,
essentially all fixed except for elemental sulfur and
fuel grade coke which are priced and treated as
by-products.
n Key qualities of all major
products.
Refining
n Base
"nameplate" capacities of some 50 process
units covering primary processing (distillation),
secondary processing, yield and quality upgrading,
ancillary units (hydrogen production, sulfur
recovery, utilities generation) representing
established technologies, and new technologies
centred mainly on reformulated fuels production.
n For
each unit in each region, estimated effective
availability factor reflecting such factors as long
run utilization rates, refinery practice of double
training key units such as sulfur recovery, poorer
operating practices in some world regions, or
effects of scheduled shutdowns in a short-term
seasonal case.
n For
each regional refinery, controls on operations of
major units, e.g. severity, feed composition.
n For
cases with refinery investment option:
- factors to represent
capital cost/location factor and capital
recovery factor (cost of capital) in each
region.
- Any limits on capacity
additions in the form of revamping,
de-bottlenecking and major new unit investments,
e.g. no net increase in PADD 1 distillation
capacity. (WORLD allows all three
modes of capacity expansion under user control.)
n
Differences in regional environmental costs can also
be accounted for.
Transportation
n Allowed inter-regional
movements for each crude and each product; this in part to
control the number of transportation options by eliminating
extremely unlikely or essentially duplicate
routings and in part to prevent movements that
are not allowed for political reasons, no
Libyan imports to U.S.,
n
Transportation
cost for each crude, product and shipped
inter-refinery intermediate stream.
Related import
duty, lightering, canal or other tariffs
n
Optional differentiation of tankers by class
with fleet capacity limits
n
Multi-mode transport movements.
n
Transportation capacity limits on major
inter-regional pipelines.
General
n
Selected limitations on individual activities,
e.g. requiring certain minimum volumes of FCC
feedstocks to move into the U.S. to reflect
the existence of several refineries for whom
this is their primary feedstock, a
"micro" factor that in the
aggregated model would otherwise be subsumed.
Underlying
Premises
The
case inputs above define the present-day or future
scenario to be simulated. Development of future
horizon cases in particular requires careful
consideration of the uncertainties underlying
projections and thus how the parameters that influence
the industry could evolve. For instance, the following
are among key basic factors influencing any current
forward-looking study:
n
The
overall assessment and outlook for global oil
price / gas price / supply / demand balance.
n
Crude production
outlook including balance of future OPEC versus
non-OPEC production.
n
Specific
country crude production and mix.
n
Product
demand growth rates, absolute and relative.
n
Extent of
new gas distribution projects and their
influence on regional substitution of residual
and heating oil demands.
n
Evolution
of gasoline, distillates and residual fuel
qualities by region, especially based on
mandates for clean and reformulated fuels.
n
Potential
substitution of petroleum products by
alternative fuels.
n
Availability of new refining
technologies and their costs
n
Evolution of regional capital cost
location factors for process unit
investments depending on the effects
of environmental legislation.
n
Forecast transportation routes, modes,
capacities and rates.
While
certain of these parameters will often have
been set by the world regional supply/demand
forecast used for a particular study, numerous
parameters ranging from details of non-OPEC
regional growth rates for individual products
to specific refining assumptions have to be
derived from ancillary sources and/or by
analyst judgement.
Given
the above inputs, the WORLD
model simulates the operations, technology and
economics of the world regional industry,
using all the available options – crude
shipping, refinery processing, investment
(when allowed), blending, intermediates and
product shipping – to satisfy the specific
product demands feasibly and optimally (i.e.
at minimum global cost); this while respecting
all the constraints on the system, notably
supply limits, shipping limits, process
capacity and operational limits, product
blending specifications, regional product
demands.
WORLD
OUTPUTS
The
outputs from a simulation can be categorized
into three groups:
I
Physical Information
n
Marginal and total crudes and non-crudes
intakes.
n
Generation and consumption of utilities
and variable non-crude feedstocks
(methanol for refinery and merchant [MTBE]
use, natural gas for refinery use and as
merchant GTL feedstock.)
n
Crude, non-crudes, products and
intermediates movements.
n
Refinery and "merchant"
process unit capacity additions (when
allowed) in every region through
revamping, debottlenecking and major new
unit investments.
n
Process unit operations, regional
refining and merchant plant throughputs
and utilizations.
n
Blending activities and blend
compositions.
n
Product demands (sales), generally
fixed.
II Refining and
Market Economic Information
n
Marginal costs on
every crude where there is an active
movement into the region. These equate
to FOB prices at port of origin and to
CIF prices at port of delivery.
n
Finished product
marginal costs (equating to open
market prices) in every region.
n
Values of intermediate
streams in every regional refinery.
n
Economic rents
(expansion incentives) on process
units at their capacity limit (either
where investment is not activated or
where allowed active investment is
limited and at its maximum.)
n
Costs (relaxation
incentives) on limiting product
specifications.
n
Costs (relaxation
incentives) on other imposed
constraints, e.g. process unit
operations, specific movements.
n
Costs of
investments in new capacity (when
allowed.)
Refining
margins.
III
Regional and Global Economic Information
The
specific cost and activity data available from
a WORLD solution are used to
report the revenues, rents, and costs
associated with:
n
Crude producers
n
Non-crude producers
n
Refiners
n
Shippers
by
region, building up to the consumers' cost by
region and globally. The net import bill can
also be reported (currently for U.S. regions
only).
Comparing
these outputs across cases, it is possible to
identify the physical, market and regional
economic effects on producers, refiners,
shippers and consumers of changes in the world
petroleum supply situation – whether changes
in BAU assumptions or the effects of a
disruption.
Overall, the WORLD
model:
n
Realistically
simulates the refining operations and
economics of the world's regions.
(Because
it contains detailed refining
matrices.)
n
Ensures a feasible
solution to meeting world regional
demands identifying material balance
flows across regions and globally.
(Provided
input assumptions allow a feasible
solution.)
n
Reflects and simulates
the effects of the economic
cost/profit forces driving industry
activities.
(Since
the majority of crude and product
trading today is related to open
market prices, and also because
virtually all refiners run and
optimize their refineries based on
market economics using LP models
fundamentally similar to the WORLD
model.)
n
Provides an integrated
simulation which generates internally
consistent physical flows, refining
market, regional economics and
interactions.
In its global formulation,
the WORLD model simulates regional
effects. Insights at the level of individual
countries or refinery types can be obtained
where the model has been appropriately
disaggregated.
5.
WORLD System Overview
SOFTWARE AND HARDWARE
The WORLD model
comprises a series of linked sub-systems which together permit
cohesive data management, matrix generation, optimization and report
writing under direct used control. At the core of the system is
extensive, proprietary, program code written in Haverly Systems'
OMNI language. This handles two main functions:
1. The manipulation of
"case" and "permanent" input data into a
generated industry-standard LP matrix.
2. The generation of
multiple reports from matrix data and run solution files.
A key feature of OMNI is that it
enables the model to be highly data-driven, i.e. the code has been
written so that most model changes, such as adding new regions,
process units, crudes, products, specifications, as well as changing
virtually any data items can be handled without modification to the
code; data table modifications are all that is needed.
The MPS LP matrix data file is
input to, analyzed and optimized by one of the leading optimizer
software packages. New generation "interior point/barrier
method" optimization software, such as Cplex from ILOG,
XpressMP from Dash Associates, provide the best performance and
consistency. A model such as WORLD appears to find the
weaknesses in optimizers in terms of both their diagnostic and
optimizing capabilities and therefore optimizer selection is
critical to smooth model development and use.
The WORLD model
contains, manipulates, and computes many thousands of input data
items. These include:
n
Detailed
crude and non-crude availabilities.
n
Detailed
product demands (historical and projected) and
specifications.
n
Process capacity data
by unit by refinery worldwide.
n
Transportation routing,
mileage and cost data.
n
Process yield and
product blending data.
n
Process cost data.
To manage these data,
EnSys has developed sophisticated spreadsheets which
output OMNI format case data tables. The spreadsheets, are
written in Excel. Model data, case and run management can
thus be handled from within Windows with optimizer
functions handled by opening MS-DOS windows under Windows
98/2000/NT.
WORLD
model run times are highly practical. Time depends on
model size, but an 11-region formulation of WORLD
in investment mode can take as little as two minutes to
solve on a Pentium PC depending on CPU speed and
optimizer. These run times apply for feasible cases using
the barrier method. Infeasible cases generally require
dropping back to Simplex and run times are longer.
Overall, current and
forthcoming high-end PCs, in combination with the new
generation optimizers and the PC version of OMNI,
represent a fundamental breakthrough in terms of large LP
model practicality and cost.
For PC installation of
the WORLD model, the minimum hardware and
software
requirements are:
n
Pentium or equivalent,
preferably Pentium III or higher and 500 + MHz
n
Main memory of 64+
megabytes, depending on model formulation
n
PC OMNI Assembler
package
n
CPlex or XpressMP
optimizer
n
Microsoft Office 97 or 2000
DATA SUB-SYSTEMS
The WORLD
model can be viewed as a combination of core data and
program components or sub-systems. The data sub-systems are
focused on data management and the preparation of input data
tables. There are 5 such sub-systems, comprising
inter-linked Excel spreadsheets which maintain all model
input data and output these as ASCII (text) files which are
read by the OMNI matrix generator. The five Excel
spreadsheets encompass:
1. Master case controls and scenario
options.
2. Supply, demand and quality,
encompassing: crudes, NGLs and other non-crudes
production levels, country and regional
product demands by major category and grade
within category, product specifications.
3. Refinery and merchant
oxygenates capacity and operations, including
data by unit by refinery worldwide.
4. Transportation of crudes,
products and intermediates including shipping
rates and capacity limits.
5. Process technology – crude
oils, refining processes, refined product
blending, merchant oxygenates and GTLs
processes.
A fuller description of the
primary components of these sub-systems follows.
Process
Technology:
A. Crude
Oils and Refining Technology
n
Representation of over 120
world crude oils encompassing
main grades from every producing country; also
synthetic and specialty naphthenic crude oils.
n
A detailed and tested
representation of over fifty refinery
processes including advanced technologies and
operating modes for reformulated and
military fuels.
(See
APPENDIX B for list of processes and key
operating modes.)
n
Specific
capability for reformulated gasoline,
ultra low sulfur/sulfur-plus- aromatics
diesel, multiple jet fuel grades and
several residual fuel oil grades.
n
User activated investment
feature builds up full annualized
investment costs for capacity addition which
are tailored by region for location factor
and capital recovery (cost of capital), can be
used to reflect refinery scale (e.g. to
capture the economy-of-scale disadvantage of
small refineries.)
B. NGLs,
Petrochemicals, Merchant GTLs and Oxygenates
Plants
n
Optional
user generation of a "petrochemicals"
facility in any or all refining regions.
This can be used to incorporate ethylene
cracking or potentially other processes
within the model and is currently being used
to simulate merchant MTBE and GTL
plant operations, investment and shipping
for forward horizons. It is also used to
simulate NGLs' availability going as inputs
to oil refineries and LPG product demand.
Supply / Demand /
Quality:
A. Crude
Production and Non-Crudes Supply Sub-System
n
National crude oil production levels (actual
or projected) with grade breakdowns.
n
U.S. crude production broken
down by major grade within state.
n
U.S. and foreign
SPRs represented with crude grades
and proportions.
n
Syncrudes from tar
sands (Canadian, Venezuelan.)
n
NGLs' production by
country/region with facility to
break out C2's/C3's/C4's/C5+
or to aggregate C3's/C4's.
n
Other non-crude
inputs including full blended
ethanol, splash blended ethanol,
petrochemical sector returns,
synthetic petroleum products,
methanol.
n
Natural gas purchase
for fuel/feedstock uses.
B.
Finished Product Demand Sub-System
n
Can directly
utilize major available historical
data sources including:
Petroleum Supply Annual for the
U.S.A., OECD/IEA statistics, EIA
International Energy Annual, UN data
etc.
n
Data are by PADD for
U.S. and elsewhere by country with
major products demands.
n
PADD and country
data are first aggregated into
"sub-regions" for easy
final aggregation and for projection
of demands (see APPENDIX A.)
n
Facilities
incorporated to aggregate and
disaggregate product data within
categories, including military
fuels.
n
BAU data can be
overridden and adjusted to
reflect non-BAU scenarios.
n
Incorporates
annual growth rates to project
demands by major product groups by
region to any future horizon.
C.
Product Blending and Specifications
Sub-System
n
Detailed
representation of blending options,
component qualities and specifications
for major, minor and military products.
n
Some 30 discrete
products can currently be
represented including essentially
all products represented in the EIA
Petroleum Supply Annual, plus
reformulated and military grades.
(See APPENDIX C for list of
products.)
n
Reformulated gasoline
blends are available for use in addition
to conventional grades. Qualities cover all
anticipated specifications; also linearized
versions of EPA equations for control of
gasoline emissions are available.
n
Discrete representation of
conventional versus low sulfur/ aromatics diesel down
to sub 10 ppm sulfur levels.
n
Capability to model severe
reformulations of gasoline, diesel and jet fuels
n
Separate blending capabilities
for Jet A/A-1, JP-8, JP-5, JP-4 and potential high
density JP8X / JP-11 fuels with rich representation of blend
properties.
n
User option to select recipe blend
representation of minor products such as JP-4, JP-5.
Multiple residual fuel sulfur
grades represented.
n
User control of activated product
specifications activated case-by-case.
n
Winter/ summer/regional
variation of product specifications. (See APPENDIX D
for listing of model blend properties.)
n
Input product specifications are
based on refinery blend targets or reported regional actuals
rather than nominal specifications to avoid model
over-optimization.
Capacity and
Operations Sub-System
n
Every refinery worldwide with capacity by
process unit type is represented in a spreadsheet
database; basis is reviewed Oil & Gas Journal data plus
other in-house sources.
n
Incorporates known capacity
addition projects by refinery; enables base individual and
regional capacities to be generated for different horizons
within the three or so year time-frame of known additions. (WORLD
investment feature – if activated – enables further
capacity additions beyond announced projects.)
n
Standard process unit stream day
factors are incorporated for each type of unit. An additional capacity
utilization factor enables the user to adjust nameplate capacity
to effective available capacity to accommodate such factors as:
estimated seasonal shutdowns – or shutdown deferrals, typical long
term industry utilization rates, lack of inter-connection of all
process units in a region.
n
Sub-system provides for user
control of operations on key units including:
FCC, catalytic reforming, distillate hydrotreating,
refinery fuel pool (See APPENDIX B for details.)
n
Facility to generate
and/or purchase steam and power.
n
Additives purchasing and
blending including diesel pour depressant, ignition
improver, specialty jet additives and gasoline
manganese additive.
n
Capacity and project
data for "merchant" units, notably for MTBE
and GTLs.
Crudes,
Products and Intermediates Transportation Sub-System
A. Transport
n
Develops fully built-up movement/import
costs under a wide variety of scenarios.
n
Inter-regional movements database.
n
Is based on WorldScale rates
n
User selects vessel size and clean/dirty
type for each marine movement.
n
User controls which movements are
generated.
n
Movements reflect pipeline and canal
routings and tariffs.
n
Crude, product and intermediate import
tariffs (flat rate and ad valorem) for U.S., Europe and
other world regions.
n
Capacitated representation of major
inter-regional pipelines.
n
Multi-mode movements
B. General
Limits
n
Simple vector bounding feature allows user
to control activity of any individual vector in the model;
most often used to control movement vectors e.g. to reflect
crude exporting policies and to ensure a proportion of a
country's crude production is run in local refineries.
PROGRAM
SUB-SYSTEMS
Overview
A. WORLD
Generation Sub-System
The OMNI
matrix generation code is almost entirely data driven by
control tables and tables output by the refinery technology
and case data spreadsheets. Matrix configuration and size is
dynamically controlled based on number of regions defined,
refineries per region, active units and process operating
modes in each refinery, whether investment is activated,
active regional and global product types, active product
specifications, allowed transportation movements.
Table-driven
matrix generation code improves generation efficiency and
model run time by identifying and eliminating inactive
process units, operating modes (vectors) and intermediate
streams dynamically, based on case data.
B.
Optimization Sub-System
WORLD
works with all optimizers that accept the MPS format matrix
output by OMNI and which generate OMNI-compatible solution
files. WORLD has been optimized mainly using
MPSIII, OSL, XpressMP and CPlex. With built-in proprietary
EnSys scaling methods, the model runs stably without
degeneration or other problems.
Matrix
statistics are problem dependent but, with EnSys' 11 region
model running in investment mode geared to forward
reformulated fuels analysis, matrix size is 8,000 rows by
30,000 columns and 256,000 non-zero elements.
C.
Reporting and Analysis Sub-System
WORLD
OMNI report code generates data driven reports covering:
n
World regional
supply/demand balances including refinery gain,
catalytic coke production and natural gas consumption.
n
Refinery
operations, utilizations and investment.
n
Refinery
feedstock/production balances.
n
Crude
movements, in detail and in aggregate.
n
Intermediates and products
movements.
n
Assignment of non-crude inputs.
n
Regional product
production/import/export/demand balances, patterned
after EIA/IEA reporting conventions.
n
Product blending.
n
Crude and product marginal
costs/prices.
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