API Releases EnSys WORLD Analysis of Waxman-Markey Bill
Full Report Now Available
EnSys finds Waxman-Markey would disadvantage US refining and shift refinery throughput and investments overseas
The American Petroleum Institute (API) recently released the full findings and results from an EnSys Energy study into the refining industry impact of the proposed Waxman-Markey Bill (H.R. 2454).
When summary results were released in late August, the interest was very widespread. Major publications and news sources, including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, Financial Times, Bloomberg, Reuters, Platts, PIW and the Oil and Gas Journal covered the release of our findings.
The full report gives a much more in depth view into both the projected impacts of Waxman-Markey and the premises and methodology of our analysis.
For the study EnSys Energy utilized our proprietary WORLD Model. We estimated refinery throughputs, investments, utilization rates and CO2 emissions and costs among other impacts through 2030. Scenarios were based on the EIA analysis of Waxman-Markey. All projections are sensitive to future CO2 allowance costs. EnSys utilized the highest and lowest EIA cost estimates to bracket possible outcomes.
Our impact assessment concluded:
* Non-US refinery throughputs could rise between 0.9 and 3.3 million b/d by 2030 as US refineries become less competitive
* US utilization rates could drop from the current 83.3% to between 63.4% and 78.1% by 2030
* Total US refinery crude throughputs are estimated to drop to between 12 and 14.9 million B/d by 2030, versus a reference of 16.4. Gulf Coast refiners will be the hardest hit.
* Non-US sources of petroleum products could rise to between 14% and 19.4% of supply by 2030, from a reference of 9.6%
* US refinery CO2 emissions would drop substantially but impacts on global refinery emissions would be small, 0.4 to 3.1%
In sum, Waxman-Markey will represent an additional cost burden on US refineries and a resulting opportunity for non-US hydrocarbon processing.
