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Welcome
to the first page in EnSys’ website redevelopment!
Set out below are reviews of current and recent
leading edge studies and papers by EnSys Energy.
Throughout 2006, 2007 and into 2008, EnSys has been increasingly
at the forefront of analyses of global refining, oil markets and
related issues. Please click on the links below to download the
relevant PDFs. The following are selected current and recent projects: |
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Studies:
Assessment of the sub-Saharan African Refining
System. EnSys is pleased to announce
that, working with ICF Consulting of Fairfax, Virginia, we have
been awarded a contract from the World Bank to undertake a dual
study of the health benefits from improving transport fuel qualities
in sub-Saharan Africa and of the costs to the regional refining
system of meeting these and other potential changes over the next
10 to 15 years. We will be applying our WORLD model to analyze alternative
regional scenarios with the context of the global refining and supply
system.
As part of this study, we would be interested to hear from individuals
with direct “hands-on” experience with sub-Saharan refineries
who would be in a position to take an advisory role in this project.
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OPEC World Oil
Outlook. EnSys, working closely
with the OPEC Secretariat, undertook the global downstream study
using WORLD which was incorporated into the June 2007 OPEC World
Oil Outlook. Information developed for the Outlook includes assessments
of medium term refining balances (demand for additional capacity
by region versus assessed known projects), of longer term further
capacity requirements through 2020 and of associated refining
investment, margins and crude and product trade. Currently, EnSys
is engaged in the 2008 Outlook cycle, to be completed this Summer.
Electronic copies of the 2007 World Oil Outlook are available
at www.opec.org. In addition, EnSys has available a number of
hard copies of the report. Please call 781.274.8454 or email to
info@ensysenergy.com.
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International Marine
Bunker Fuels.
EnSys has recently taken a leading role in the analysis of alternative
future MARPOL Annex VI regulations, including conversion to distillate.
EnSys has functioned as the lead refining analyst for the International
Maritime Organisation, developing WORLD-based assessments of refining
investments, supply cost / price impacts across all fuels and all
regions – and of refinery CO2 emissions effects, i.e. critical
inputs into the work of the IMO in its assessment of these options
for the future regulation of marine fuels worldwide. These have
now led to firm recommendations put forth by the IMO Marine Environment
Protection Committee for formal adoption at the October 2007 MEPC
meeting. (Official press release can be viewed here.)
We have also undertaken marine fuels analyses for the API and IPIECA
as inputs to the IMO process and continue in our parallel work for
the EPA.
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Carbon Regime Impacts.
For the American Petroleum Institute, EnSys
has taken the version of WORLD that provides additional detail of
US refining and has adapted it to analyses of potential carbon regimes.
To date, we have developed quantitative assessments of the US and
global impacts of three draft bills. These highlight the potential
for significant inter-regional shifts of refining capacity and investments.
The WORLD system is now capable of evaluating a range of carbon
regime scenarios – and such scenarios put together with other
parameters, including demand/fuel efficiency effects and supply
trends toward renewables. |
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Bloomberg Refining
Netbacks. In 2004, EnSys redeveloped
the Bloomberg refining netbacks, published daily. In 2008, we are
undertaking a major expansion to increase the both the range of
refining modes for which netbacks/margins are computed and the range
of crude oils. This project entails updating refining configurations
/ modes, product specifications and some 40 crudes in several major
refining regions, worldwide. |
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Refining Developments
in India and Indonesia. For a confidential
client, EnSys has undertaken detailed LP-based modeling analyses
of refineries in both Indonesia and India. These have provided insight
into the drivers for these Asian refining systems and the impacts
of future product demand and quality developments. |
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PAPERS
In addition, recent papers by Martin Tallett,
President of EnSys, have provided quantified insights into the
potential impacts on refining investments, margins and price differentials
of global product demand pattern shifts, dieselization in Europe
and elsewhere, the impacts of growing non-crude supplies (including
GTL’s, CTL’s, NGL’s and biofuels).
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“European Diesel: Global Implications”, Platts
European Refining Markets Conference, Brussels, October 22-23rd
2007
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“Integrated Market Evaluation: Enhancing Refining Economics
Through Complex Linear Programming Technology”, Global
Refining Strategies Conference, Houston TX, September 10-11th
2007
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“Outlook for Marine Fuels Demand & Regulation: Implications
for Refining and Are We Getting Global Oil Demand Forecasting
Wrong?”, 26th Annual North American Conference of the
USAEE/IAEE, Ann Arbor MI, September 24-27th 2006
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“Refinery Capacity: How was the ball dropped? Who is going
to pick it up?”, Energizing Supply: Oil & Gas Investment
in Uncertain Times, G8 Preparatory Conference, Foreign Affairs
Canada, Ottawa, Ontario, October 28 2005
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“Global Outlook: Implications Through 2020 of Alternative
Fuels Scenarios”, CatCon 2005, Philadelphia PA, October
25-26 2005 |
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