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‘Marine Fuels 2020’ – a Service to Monitor and Project Global 0.5% Sulphur Marine Fuel Availability, Demand and Economics through 2020

On Thursday October 27th at MEPC70, the IMO confirmed that the MARPOL Annex VI Global 0.5% Sulphur Rule (henceforth referred to as the Global Sulphur Rule) will enter into force on January 1st 2020.  Concerns expressed regarding availability, suitability and stability of Marine Fuel blends and over ensuring consistent implementation led the MEPC Chairman to task IMO’s Sub-Committee on Pollution Prevention and Response (PPR) with developing an implementation plan at its next meeting (PPR4 to be held January 16-20, 2017) with that plan to be reviewed at MEPC71 in May 2017.  But the fact is that the IMO’s MEPC set the 2020 implementation date in stone – with barely a three-year countdown.

The IMO decision came despite the fact that both the official IMO study by CE Delft and the EnSys-Navigistics Supplemental Study (submitted by BIMCO and IPIECA to MEPC70) projected significant deficits of hydrogen and sulphur plant capacity at end 2019; also that per the EnSys-Navigistics Study clean petroleum products markets worldwide would be strained.   For background, please download the EnSys/Navigistics MEPC70 presentation, our review of the MEPC70 decision, and our Supplemental Study Summary and Full Report as submitted to the IMO in the lead-up to MEPC70.

EnSys-Navigistics recently authored a Hydrocarbon Processing article “Anticipated market and pricing impacts from new marine fuel regulations” (February 2017 edition). Additionally, EnSys-Navigistics work was recently featured in a December 2016/January 2017 BunkerSpot article “Can Refiners Meet the Sulphur Deadline”, a Platts Special Report: “The IMO’s 2020 Global Sulfur Cap What A 2020 Sulfur-Constrained World Means For Shipping Lines, Refineries And Bunker Suppliers”, and a Platts Global Oil Markets Podcast.

With the clock now running, EnSys and Navigistics are launching a service that regularly updates the key parameters of the 2020 outlook, thereby informing and forewarning stakeholders of developments and facilitating informed decision-making.

 Our Marine Fuels 2020 service will save you the internal resources needed to follow developments. The service will build on the foundation of our Supplemental Study. It will cover the following comprehensive set of key parameters and projections:

  • Total global marine fuel demand
  • Scrubber penetration and projection to 2020 and beyond
  • Fuel formulations (current including 0.1% sulphur ECA fuels and projected)
  • Refinery capacity major unit additions
  • Refinery hydrogen and sulphur plant capacity additions
  • Global supply / demand balance and market economic outlook including: potential for capacity/fuel supply shortfall and market economics for crude oils and products – hence also refining margins – by region worldwide; in short, critical intelligence and a sound basis for decision making.

To maximize value to subscribers, we will provide updates on a regular rolling cycle:

Quarterly News Update Starting end 1st quarter 2017 then end of each of 2nd, 3rd and 4th quarters, an update and distillation of the most significant new developments in the quarter based on research and review of industry press and other sources.

Twice per year Comprehensive Supply/Demand Update Presented in the 1st quarter and 3rd quarter, an update to the marine fuels demand outlook, encompassing total demand, scrubber penetration and hence high sulphur / low sulphur demand split. Then, in the 2nd quarter and 4th quarter, a full supply/demand balance/market economics update based on the latest marine fuels demand picture and latest refining capacity outlook and updated / latest global supply/demand/oil price outlooks taken from either the IEA or the EIA with comparison as warranted.

Implementation/transition insights

We will monitor IMO and other sources in order to provide insight and commentary on how implementation issues are being viewed and addressed and their potential impact on the transition.

Pricing & Terms

The subscription is for the 2017 service year to comprise 2 rounds of demand and supply/demand balance updates as described above plus 4 quarterly reviews of developments via distillation of press and other information. Fee $(US) 9,950 for the 2017 subscription payable in full in advance.

 

Full information on service

Please fill out the form below to obtain a brochure with full service details. Additionally, feel free to contact Martin Tallett at EnSys (in the U.S 781-274-8454) regarding refinery issues or David St. Amand at Navigistics (in the U.S. 978-266-1882) regarding maritime industry issues.

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