At EnSys Energy our expertise is in the downstream oil industry, an area where we have a deep understanding of all variables and unique modeling experience. This allows us to provide clients with a range of high-value services, supporting clients’ strategic, regulatory, and policy decisions as they relate to or interact with the global refining sector. These center on quantitative analyses and span from global industry modeling to expert witness assignments.

Our services fall into six main categories:

Global Downstream Analysis & WORLD Modeling

EnSys Energy provides quantified short and long-term analyses of the global supply system, the downstream sector, and oil markets. To do so EnSys utilizes the WORLD model: a unique and comprehensive modeling system for the refining industry. By accurately simulating the interactions between refining, supply, demand transport and regulation it allows EnSys to evaluate a wide array of scenarios. Global in nature, the model is commonly also used to assess regional and national developments. These range from refining outlook and economics to petroleum product trade and C02 emissions regulation. Clients include the American Petroleum Institute, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, the International Maritime Organisation, the OPEC Secretariat, ExxonMobil and other oil and specialty companies.

Refining Analysis and Refining Margins

EnSys Energy’s understanding of the refining industry has placed it as a leader in modeling refining operations and economics. We provide the algorithms and programming which underpin the calculation of the Bloomberg refining netbacks (NTBK). This has been the subject of a recent and on-going expansion.

Regulatory Analysis

WORLD-based studies by EnSys have been applied to many regulatory developments including reformulated and ultra-low sulfur fuels and the impacts of carbon regimes. The WORLD model is preferred for this work as it allows a true global view of regulatory impacts. Also, due to our knowledge and WORLD simulation of the refining industry, the effects of regulation on refining or refining on regulation can both be rapidly modeled. A recent development of the WORLD model is an inclusion of emissions information as well as carbon regime impacts and pricing, allowing a new avenue of both cost studies and regulatory impacts to be evaluated.

Maritime Bunker Fuels Analysis

An offshoot of our regulatory analysis business, EnSys Energy provides the tools necessary to fully evaluate marine fuels policy decisions and has played a key role in this area for several years. Able to model the interplay between ship emissions, regulation, and refining, EnSys can shed light on the true global effects of each variable. EnSys applied this to detail the impacts on the refining sector of the now-promulgated MARPOL Annex VI Regulations for the IMO. Along with our partner Navigistics Consulting, EnSys Energy was also instrumental in disproving the popular conception of bunker demand and developing the now-accepted model of higher consumption. The same partnership of EnSys and Navigistics supported the EPA’s March 2009 Emissions Control Area application submission to the IMO.

Expert Witness Services

EnSys Energy provides support to litigation proceedings. Current activities center on litigation relating to the use of MTBE in US gasoline. Past work has included assessment of US state MTBE bans, evaluation of US West Coast crude economics and detailed analysis of the potential impacts of the HOVENSA refinery joint venture on St. Croix.
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Hydrocarbon Sector Investment Planning

EnSys Energy undertakes quantitative planning and evaluations for individual capital projects through to complete hydrocarbon sectors. These have recently included a comprehensive assessment of the prospects for sub Saharan refining for the World Bank and African Refiners’ Association, in conjunction with ICF Consulting. Past work includes an array of refinery, petroleum systems, and national energy policy evaluations. Countries previously covered include the USA, Canada, Trinidad, Ecuador and Tunisia.