Set out below are reviews of current and recent leading edge studies and papers by EnSys Energy.

Throughout 2010 and 2011, EnSys has been at the forefront of analyses of global refining, oil markets and related issues. Press coverage of our publications has included the Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, and Bloomberg. Please click on the links below to download the relevant PDFs. The following are selected current and recent projects:

Cushing Canadian Congestion & Keystone XL - A Review of Logistics Options Martin Tallett, President of EnSys Energy, presented at the COQA October 2011 meeting a complete picture of the non-pipeline potential alternatives that are supporting the movements of Canadian oil sand into the US. Rail and barge/tanker are playing an increasingly important role in the transportation of this resource.

US Logistics Constraints and Supply Developments - Rapidly Changing Scenarios for Domestic Refining Martin Tallett, principal of EnSys Energy, lays out during this presentation the current Cushing Canadian congestion and its impacts in the industry. The medium and long term scenarios will depend on the development of new infrastructure needed to transport Canadian growing oil production.

Global Outlook for the Refining Industry - Prospects & Challenges Martin Tallett, principal of EnSys Energy, sets the stage for the 3rd Annual World Refining Technology Summit 2011, with this presentation. A complete overview of the Global downstream outlook including demand by region and products and how new fuels, emission and climate regulations could potentially impact this outlook. Martin Tallett provides an interesting updated refining outlook including utilizations and closures and how the U.S Refining Scene is changing.

DOS releases Keystone XL Final Environmental Impact Statement - includes EnSys KXL Assessment "No Expansion" Update analysis In our Keystone XL Assessment study for the Department of Energy, released in December 2010, EnSys evaluated a number of alternative pipeline scenarios. As well as "KXL" and "No KXL" outlooks, these included "No Expansion" scenarios in which all or most pipeline capacity to move Western Canadian crudes was "frozen" at 2011 levels, Keystone XL was not allowed and other pipeline projects/expansions were totally or partially restricted. In June 2011, the Departments of Energy and State requested that we revisit these No Expansion scenarios and reassess in more depth the factors that could render them probable or improbable. This new report presents our findings based on an updated and comprehensive assessment of logistics developments that could support Western Canadian crude oil exports and avoid production restrictions in the event of a total or partial lack of further pipeline expansion. The study includes a detailed analysis of the status and future potential for rail, barge and tanker movements and combinations, as well as projects entailing existing pipelines and rights-of-way.

DOE releases EnSys Keystone XL Assessment Report In June 2010, EnSys Energy was contracted by the Department of Energy Office of Policy & International Affairs to conduct an evaluation of the impacts on U.S. and global refining, trade and oil markets of the Keystone XL project, which would bring additional Canadian crudes, including oil sands, into the U.S. EnSys employed its World Oil Refining Logistics & Demand (WORLD) model to address the potential impacts of constructing or not constructing Keystone XL through a series of pipeline export scenarios out to 2030. This report includes detailed review of Keystone XL and other projects as well as study results and conclusions.

OPEC 2010 World Oil Outlook First published in 2007, the OPEC World Oil Outlook is an annual in-depth review, analysis and projection of scenarios for the medium and long-term development of the oil industry, covering both the upstream and downstream sectors. EnSys Energy became closely involved with the World Oil Outlook in 2000, when our World Oil Refining Logistics and Demand model (WORLD) was selected by OPEC as the basis for their downstream studies. We are pleased to state that the downstream analysis has since resulted in EnSys working with the Secretariat on each annual cycle using WORLD. The World Oil Outlook is an important reference tool that critically analyses a wide range of key industry issues, such as supply and demand, refining activities and investments, costs, policies and the environment. It also maps out challenges as well as opportunities facing the industry.

Crudes, Non-crudes, Demand & Climate Regulation: the Changing World before us – Opportunity Crudes Conference October, 2010 – Houston This keynote paper by Martin Tallett, President of EnSys Energy, sets the scene for Opportunity Crudes 2010 by drawing on recent EnSys work to examine how major drivers at play in the global downstream are likely to interact and impact crude oil and refining economics. Coverage includes the effects of sudden demand loss through recession, shifting production by crude type, rising supply of biofuels and other non-crudes, changing demand mixes and geographic centers of growth, advancing quality specifications, and the potential for climate initiatives to rearrange oil markets. The paper sets out the implications for heavy and opportunity crude oils.

Global Downstream Developments & Their Impacts on Coke – Argus Petroleum Coke Summit Americas September 2010- Houston In this presentation Martin Tallett, President of Ensys Energy, talks about the current events that put the Refining & Petroleum Coke environment in a period of exceptional uncertainty and potential change notably Climate Legislation is unlikely to work in Pet Coke’s favor.

Availability of Low Sulphur Marine Fuels: Prospects & Issues – ICS International Shipping Conference September 2010 – London In this presentation Martin Tallett and David St. Amand from Navigistics Consulting set out the key issues that need to be addressed to achieve successful implementation of MARPOL AnnexVI. Coverage focuses on current deficiencies in marine fuels demand statistics, potential costs and lead times for conversion to distillate and critical uncertainties over timing and level of conversion.

EnSys Energy the Premier Knowledge Partner of "The World Refining Technology Summit & Exhibition 2009" Held November 2-3, Vienna Austria Martin Tallett, President of EnSys Energy gave two presentations at the conference. The first focused on the difficulties face by the refining industry due to the global economic downturn and the resulting demand impact.

The second addressed the issue of new energy regulation and the impact it will have on the refining industry, especially in the context of the recession. A special focus was made on the impact of the US Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill.

Bloomberg Refining Netbacks In 2004, EnSys redeveloped the Bloomberg refining netbacks, published daily. In late 2008, we completed a major expansion to increase the both the range of refining modes for which netbacks/margins are computed and the range of crude oils. This project entailed updating refining configurations / modes, product specifications and some 40 crudes in several major refining regions, worldwide. Through 2009 and into 2010 we have maintained and developed new crude streams and functionality. The tool is increasingly used for analysis by a wide range of Bloomberg clients.

Carbon Regime Impacts: Waxman-Markey Analysis for the API For the American Petroleum Institute, EnSys has taken the version of WORLD that provides additional detail of US refining and has adapted it to analyses of potential carbon regimes. Most recently, we developed a quantitative assessment of the US and global impacts of Waxman-Markey. Our findings highlight the potential for significant inter-regional shifts of refining capacity, investments and emissions. The WORLD system is now capable of evaluating a range of carbon regime scenarios – and such scenarios put together with other parameters, including demand/fuel efficiency effects and supply trends toward renewables. The report generated significant press coverage, including the Wall Street Journal, New York Times, and Financial Times. The full report, with a much more in depth view into both the projected impacts of Waxman-Markey and the premises and methodology of our analysis is now available.

OPEC World Oil Outlook 2009 EnSys, working closely with the OPEC Secretariat, undertook the global downstream study using WORLD which was incorporated into the, 2007, 2008 and now 2009 OPEC World Oil Outlook. Information developed for the Outlook includes assessments of medium term refining balances (demand for additional capacity by region versus assessed known projects), of longer term further capacity requirements through 2020 and of associated refining investment, margins and crude and product trade.

EPA publishes "Global Trade and Fuels Assessment and Additional ECA Modeling Scenarios" The full text of the analysis conducted for the EPA's ECA application. The study was conducted in partnership with RTI International and Navigistics Consulting.

EnSys Energy is cited in the US/Canadian application to the IMO for a coastal Emissions Control Area (ECA) The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), along with other regulatory bodies in the United States and Canada, is considering whether to designate an Emission Control Area (ECA) along the North American coastlines. The study undertaken by EnSys Energy in partnership with RTI and Navigistics Consulting was used by the EPA to show the impacts and benefits of a US/Canadian ECA.

"US Crude Supply Outlook Implications for Refining" Martin Tallett presents "US Crude Supply Outlook Implications for Refining" at the COQG Workshop in San Antonio.

Assessment of the sub-Saharan African Refining System. EnSys recently complete a landmark study of refining in sub-Saharan Africa. Working with ICF Consulting of Fairfax, Virginia, we completed a contract from the World Bank to undertake a dual study of the health benefits from improving transport fuel qualities in sub-Saharan Africa and of the costs to the regional refining system of meeting these and other potential changes over the next 10 to 15 years. We employed our WORLD model to analyze alternative regional scenarios with the context of the global refining and supply system.

OPEC World Oil Outlook 2008 EnSys, working closely with the OPEC Secretariat, undertook the global downstream study using WORLD which was incorporated into the June 2007 and now July 2008 OPEC World Oil Outlook. Information developed for the Outlook includes assessments of medium term refining balances (demand for additional capacity by region versus assessed known projects), of longer term further capacity requirements through 2020 and of associated refining investment, margins and crude and product trade.

International Marine Bunker Fuels EnSys has recently taken a leading role in the analysis of alternative future MARPOL Annex VI regulations, including conversion to distillate. EnSys has functioned as the lead refining analyst for the International Maritime Organisation, developing WORLD-based assessments of refining investments, supply cost / price impacts across all fuels and all regions – and of refinery CO2 emissions effects, i.e. critical inputs into the work of the IMO in its assessment of these options for the future regulation of marine fuels worldwide. These have now led to firm recommendations put forth by the IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee for formal adoption at the October 2007 MEPC meeting. (Official press release can be viewed here.) We have also undertaken marine fuels analyses for the API and IPIECA as inputs to the IMO process and continue in our parallel work for the EPA.

Carbon Regime Impacts For the American Petroleum Institute, EnSys has taken the version of WORLD that provides additional detail of US refining and has adapted it to analyses of potential carbon regimes. To date, we have developed quantitative assessments of the US and global impacts of three draft bills. These highlight the potential for significant inter-regional shifts of refining capacity and investments. The WORLD system is now capable of evaluating a range of carbon regime scenarios – and such scenarios put together with other parameters, including demand/fuel efficiency effects and supply trends toward renewables.

Atlantic Basin Refiners Face Tough Challenges At the 2008 Global Refining Summit, Martin Tallett gave a presentation of his outlook for US refining based on recent work for OPEC, the API and others.